My fear is that anyone or anybody, retired or otherwise, are about as good as foretelling the future as those who rely on the stars and tea leaves. Practising professionalism have the aid of the most sophisticated models and the most sophisticated and complex theories. The members of this profession have the advantage of being able to rely on the staple of their trade, the two hands.
On the one hand, this. On the other hand, that. Unfortunately in predicting the future, even two hands are often not enough. I should of course not be too tough on anyone since me myself do not have an enviable record either. When predicting the future, if fail, the profusion of words that constantly issue from the mouths are likely to confuse and cause lapse of memory among those who hear them. In any case, we can modify our predictions as we go along. In the end of course we are never too far wrong.
Still the wise-man always hedges his bets. And so I would like to remind you that the one thing we must expect about the future is to expect much that we don’t expect. I would like to reflect a little on two quite unextraordinary thoughts about the future. The first is that the world has entered with some fanfare into a historical era of transition and its attendant uncertainty. The second is that in shrinking world no one will be allowed to escape the consequences of the changes the world is going through. There will be winners and there will be losers. There will be those who will be caught in between and who will be squeezed. Some will not know what hit them. Whichever it may be life for everyone will not be quite the same again.
It is therefore necessary for us to fully grasp the critical elements of continuity and transition and to respond quickly, flexibly, with creativity and strength, to the opportunities that will present themselves as well as the challenges that will be hurled at us.
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